黄君李

(广西翻译公司www.gxglang.com 0771-2839077)

关于媒体、科技等领域的未来，每年都会出现诸多大胆的宣言。尽管读起来妙趣横生，不过有时候，这些都是玫瑰色镜头下的产物，而评论家似乎忽略了科技和文化快速发展带来的成长烦恼。今年，我们总结了2013年影响营销和媒体的几个主要趋势，毫无保留地呈现给读者。

应用程序是新的微型网站

在21世纪头一个十年的早期到中期，每个品牌都想建立一家微型网站，不久后互联网开始变得拥堵，充斥着各种宣传网站，并且很快就过时了。

让网站变得有趣远远不够，你必须吸引众多用户来访问网站并分享出去。

如今，每个品牌都想建立其自己的iOS或安卓应用程序，似曾相识的困境再一次出现。

这一方面是个数字问题：苹果应用商店现在拥有超过65万个应用程序， Google Play Store拥有超过60万个应用程序，根据GigaOm网站的统计，其中大约25%的应用只打开过一次就再也没有被打开过。

因此就出现了一个价值百万美元的问题：如何让品牌带动大规模下载，让应用程序登上令人垂涎的主屏幕，提醒人们使用你的应用，并且在做这些事情的同时尊重用户体验，而不必滥发推送和邮件通知？

产品宿醉

随着Fuelband腕带发布并在随后的戛纳广告节上获得金狮奖，产品开发在广告公司被视作必备技能，每个品牌现在都竭力宣传把产品投入市场。

假以时日，我们将会看到它们最终的成效。

下面有几点需要注意：

首先，成功的产品开发需要特定的风险预测，许多品牌管理者没有做到这一点。产品开发通常还需要不同的方法来编制预算，因为产品从一开始并不稳定，团队构成（包括内部和广告公司）方面也需要采取新的方法。

各个品牌应该寻找合作伙伴，它们既要有丰富的展示经验，还要能尝试新的定价模式，这些模式以固定成本短片和原型设计为基础，不同于传统广告宣传的小时计费和标准成品。

原生广告的处境将更加尴尬

随着原生广告的崛起，在2013年，我们会看到，原本习惯于付费吸引关注并传播自身想法的品牌，开始向编辑内容领域的尴尬过渡。

原生广告要求以更加真实——以及有趣——的方法来整合内容和信息。原生广告更多地侧重于新闻理念而不是推送广告。

2013年第一个尴尬的整合是《大西洋月刊》（Atlantic）的科学教广告，导致《大西洋月刊》撤回广告宣传，发表声明称，“我们依然致力和热衷于数字广告的创新，但是我们惭愧地承认，我们急于求成……”

对于这种类型的广告内容和这种与广告客户日程出现的冲突，出版商需要切实地建立和完善坚定的指导原则。

僵尸用户重现，困扰品牌和应用程序

2012年的一个热门话题是社交视频初创企业SocialCam的迅速崛起，这家公司以6,000万美元的价格被软件供应商Autodesk收购。

但是如果你仔细研究科技博客 TechCrunch的头条新闻，就会发现这个应用程序为了建立受众群体，使出了各种恶劣的手段。垃圾邮件推送、自动关注、在应用程序中注入热门YouTube视频伪装成网站原创，一个都不落。

如果对抵押贷款支持债券的崩溃有所研究，你就知道以沙土为基础的产品会出现什么结果。

同样的道理也适用于那些一直在Facebook和Twitter上购买廉价关注者和粉丝的品牌。

这些数据可能看起来不错，但是如果你想带动可观的业务成果，你就必须不惜任何代价，考虑产品质量问题。

新旧更迭

故事讲得好也是一种技巧，讲故事代表了一个品牌需要努力学习做得恰到好处的品牌营销专业知识。

与此同时，出色的社交内容会对文化作出快速的响应，奥利奥饼干的“每日变形”（Daily Twist）宣传活动就证明了这一点——这是去年广告界最知名的一个案例。这种推销/拉引策略依然奏效。

目前，这种新类型的快速反应内容并不符合许多广告公司制作内容的方式，因此我们预期品牌和广告公司的内部结构将在2013年发生变化以反映这一趋势。同时还要注意科技公司，比如社交软件运营服务商Percolate，和创意、品牌故事和广告公司产品的新合作伙伴关系。

基于社交数据的创意简报

今年，我们会看到更多基于社交数据的创意简报。广告公司不再仅采用企划部门的研究，我们预期社交、分析甚至是技术部门都要积极参与进来。

通过充分利用来自社交渠道的所有参与数据，广告公司现在可以构建更能引起受众强烈反应的内容和体验。结合基础的业务目标，这会打造出在市场上更具冲击力的广告作品。

平台之争

许多市值很高的公司都建立在与其他平台共生的关系基础上。

不过现在，随着对货币化的持续追求，我们将看到更多权力博弈的情况，有些公司关闭了应用程序接口（API），未雨绸缪。2012年6月，Twitter关闭了与LinkedIn的共享合作服务，这家网站最近还关闭了Tumblr 和Instagram的“查询好友”功能。

尽管基于订阅的实时社交网站APP.net 颇为有趣，对这种平台之争的趋势做出了聪明的反应，不过这家网站是否能超越Scobles和其他早期采用者的规模，依然有待观察。

专业博客圈

在早期的博客圈中，大部分内容来自热情的新手，勤奋耕耘在自己的的小众乐趣之上。我们习惯于自上而下媒体和自下而上媒体的相互作用，从其他渠道寻求灵感或者获得解释。

目前，在过去的几年里，我们已经看到了专业博客阶层的崛起，这类博客实际上成为了媒体的一部分。

Gizmodo 和Engadget等网站所吸引的访问量和关注丝毫不亚于《纽约时报》（The New York Times）。许多原本会在一年前开始写博客的人现在找到了表达自我的其他方式，尤其是在Twitter、Facebook和Tumblr上。Tumblr 网站刚刚超过“博客”，成为谷歌上出现次数最多的搜索词之一。在这个领域，另一个因素是灵巧的客户评价，比如亚马逊、Yelp，Foursquare更是日益符合这一特点。

我们还注意到，专业类博客，尤其是科技类，容易出现观点从众现象，从而不一定能够反映消费者情绪。

比如，在三星公司发布Galaxy Note智能手机的时候，这款产品受到大家的普遍嘲笑，但是业绩超过了所有的销售预期。现在，Galaxy Note 2 获得了同样良好的业绩，许多最初的批评者逐渐改变了他们的看法（披露：TBG与三星公司有合作关系，但没有参与这次宣传活动）。

另一个最近的例子是Instagram网站修改用户服务条款引起的风波。我敢说，尽管出现了许多有影响力的微博和博客文章，但是他们的内部分析并没有降低用户参与度或者减少用户。这个领域的关键特点是，影响者泡沫有时会迷惑众人，并不能反映现实情况。

社区管理者：下一代

社区管理者习惯于在某种程度上熟练使用社交渠道。

在品牌进入社交网络的初期，所有人都可以自由参与，内部人士、公关公司、广告公司和其他机构都试图理清头绪。通过静态内容日历发布广告内容，他们必须得到提前审核和批准。

现在，各个品牌已经建立了规模相当庞大的受众群体，他们开始明白什么类型的目标/指标适用于他们的传播渠道，并且尝试新类型的内容和付费社交媒体来建立受众，传播他们的信息。

除了不计其数的其他作用以外，比如客户服务回应、客户关系管理（CRM）和发布招聘信息，这迫使社区管理者迅速成长起来。通常情况下，新的社区管理者将处于公司内部，依靠广告公司来获得具有创意的理念、内容和最佳实践。

他们将越来越多地支付社交预算进行试验，推广更热门的内容。这种新的社区管理者还将起到协助形成创意简报的作用，从主要社交平台上提取所有的参与数据，弄清楚在社区验证和兴趣的基础上制作什么样的内容。

展望未来

总体而言，我们依然处于过渡时期，对于营销人员和广告公司来说，这通常是令人困惑的时刻。

现在有很多时髦的新项目、平台和“关于未来”的宣言，让我们分心。

但是对于那些具有强大品牌价值的公司来说，愿意尝试并承担新的风险，诚实的创意和科技合作伙伴关系，都是能够与观众互动并建立业务的令人信服的新方式。

本文作者科林·纳吉（Colin Nagy）系野蛮人集团（The Barbarian Group）的执行董事。

A Realist''s Guide To Marketing In 2013

(南宁翻译公司www.gxglang.com 0771-2839077)

Every year there are bold proclamations about the future of media, technology, etc. While fun to read, sometimes the approach is with a rose-tinted lens and commentators seem to ignore some of the growing pains that come with quick tech and cultural developments. This year we’ve compiled a few of the key undercurrents shaping marketing and media in 2013, warts and all.
Apps As The New Microsite
In the early to mid-2000s every brand wanted a microsite, and soon the internet began getting clogged with campaign sites that quickly lost relevance. It wasn’t enough to make something interesting, you had to have a bunch of people come see it and share. Now, with every brand wanting to build an iOS or Android app, there is a very similar dilemma. It is partly a numbers issue: The Apple App Store now has more than 650,000 apps, the Google Play Store has more than 600,000 apps and according to GigaOm, about 25 percent are opened once and never again. So the million-dollar question is: How does a brand drive downloads at scale, make it to the coveted home screen, remind people to use your app, and do all of this while also being respectful of UX and not going wild with push and email notifications?
Product Hangovers
With the launch of the Fuelband and the subsequent Cannes Lion win, product development was seen as a must-add specialty at agencies, and every brand now clamors to get something into market. With enough time, we will see what shakes out. There are things to be aware of: One, successful product development requires a certain risk profile that many brand managers don’t have. It also often requires a different approach to budgeting, as things aren’t super concrete from the outset and can also require new approaches in terms of team structures (both internal and agency). Brands should look to partners that have a lot of demonstrated building under their belt, and also experiment with new pricing models based on fixed-cost sprints and prototyping that differ from the hourly billings and standard deliverables of traditional campaigns.
Coming Soon: More Awkward Native Ads
With the rise of native ads, in 2013 we’re going to see brands that are used to buying attention and broadcasting what they want to say making an awkward transition into the world of editorial content. Native ads require a more authentic — and interesting — approach to content and messaging. Far more in the spirit of journalism than push advertising. The first awkward integration of 2013 comes with the Atlantic’s Scientology ads, causing the Atlantic to retract the campaign and say in a statement, “We remain committed to and enthusiastic about innovation in digital advertising, but acknowledge—sheepishly—that that we got ahead of ourselves…” Look to publishers to really build and refine strong guidelines on this type of content and for this conflict with advertisers’ agendas.
Zombie Audiences Coming Back to Haunt Brands and Apps Alike

One of the buzz stories in 2012 was the meteoric rise of social video startup SocialCam, acquired byAutodesk for $60 million. But when you peek behind the TechCrunch headlines, the app played every shady game in the book to build an audience. Spammy newsfeed games? Check. Autofollowing? Check. Pumping popular YouTube videos into the app as if they originated there? Check. One can look at the mortgage-backed securities debacle to see what happens when you build something on top of sand. The same sentiment goes for brands that have been buying cheap followers and fans on Facebookand Twitter. The numbers may look great but if you’re trying to drive measurable business results, one must consider the quality at all costs.

A New Metabolism

Great storytelling is a craft and doing it on behalf of a brand requires diligent brand marketing expertise to get just right. At the same time, the best social content reacts quickly to culture, evidenced by things like Oreo’s “Daily Twist” — one of advertising’s most recognized examples last year. This push/pull is still sorting itself out. At present this new type of rapid-response content doesn’t jibe with the way a lot of agencies produce content, so expect brand and agency internal structures evolve to reflect this in 2013. Also watch for the emerging partnerships of technology companies, such as social SaaS service Percolate, with the creative, brand storytelling and production chops of agencies.

Briefs Based on Social Data

This year, we will see more creative briefs that are based on social data. Instead of just research from the planning department, expect social, analytics and even technology departments to be heavily involved. By leveraging all of the engagement data coming from social channels, agencies can now build content and experiences that are closer to what the audiences are strongly reacting to. This, combined with the underlying business goals, will make for more impactful work in the market.

The Platform Wars

Lots of highly valued companies have been built based on a symbiotic relationship to other platforms. But now, as the hunt for monetization continues, we’ll continue to see more power plays where people close off API access and batten down the hatches. Twitter cut off a syndication deal with LinkedIn in June 2012, and also recently shut down a “find your friends” feature with Tumblr and Instagram. Though the idea of subscription-based, real-time social feed APP.net is somewhat interesting as an intellectual reaction to this platform wars trend, it remains to be seen if it will ever reach meaniful scale beyond the Scobles and other early adopters.

The Professional Blogosphere

In the early days of the blogosphere, much of the content came from passionate novices writing regularly on their niche interests. There used to be interplay between top-down media and bottom-up media, with one seeking inspiration or interpretation from the other. Now, over the past few years we’ve seen the rise of the professional blogging class, which has actually become part of the media establishment. Sites like Gizmodo and Engadget drive as much traffic and hold as much interest as The New York Times. Many people who would have started blogs a year ago now are finding other ways to express themselves, notably Twitter, Facebook and Tumblr. The latter just surpassed “blog” as one of the most searched terms on Google. Another factor at play is lighter-touch consumer reviews such as Amazon, Yelp and increasingly, Foursquare.

We’ve also noticed that the professional blogging class, particularly in technology, can be prone to herd thinking that doesn’t necessarily reflect consumer sentiment. For example when Samsung launched the Galaxy Note, it was largely ridiculed by everyone yet went on to smash any and all sales projections. Now the Note 2 is doing the same and many of the early detractors have been steadily changing their tune (Disclosure: TBG works with Samsung but did not work on this campaign). Another recent example was the tempest in a teapot about the Instagram Terms of Service. I’d venture to say that, despite the flurry of influential tweets and blog posts, their internal analytics indicated no downturn in engagement or rush for the door. The key takeaway here is sometimes the influencer bubble can be deceiving and does not reflect what is going on in reality.

Community Managers: The Next Generation

The community manager used to be the kid that has some sort of fluency with social channels. The early days of brands on social networks was a bit of a free-for-all, with internal resources, PR firms, ad agencies and others all trying to figure things out. Content was published through a static content calendar, and had to be vetted and approved long in advance. Today, brands have built audiences at substantial scale, have started to figure out what sorts of goals/metrics to apply to their channels, and have been experimenting with new types of content and paid social media to build audience and disseminate their message. This, in addition to countless other roles such as customer service responses, CRM, and recruiting, has forced community managers to grow up quickly. More often than not, the new community manager will be in-house, relying on an agency for creative ideas, content, and best practices. They will also increasingly have a paid social budget to experiment with, propelling popular content higher. The new community manager will also play a role in helping to form creative briefs by taking all of the engagement data from the key social platforms and figuring out what content to make based on community validation and interest.

Going Forward

Overall, we’re still in transitional, often confusing times for marketers and agencies alike. There’s lots of shiny new objects, platforms and “future of” proclamations to distract. But for those with strong core brand values, a willingness to experiment and take new risks, and honest creative and technology partnerships, there are completely new and compelling ways to interact with audiences and build business.

This article is by Colin Nagy, an executive director of The Barbarian Group.